2025 PGA Championship: Time for the Range
Posted on May 13, 2025
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Quail Hollow with its tweaks and adjustments is ready to host a PGA Championship with fans and players in mind. The crowds (and clouds) will be flocking in and expecting the usual major atmosphere which will peak come Sunday.
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The course will be heavy, there has been lots of rain already, with more predicted in the build up. This will favour the long hitters only. There is talk of gnarly rough mown towards the tee, where fairways are not running, this can make for an tough championship. Despite these challenges, the stands are up and the players are all set.
X was out and about prepping on the range with his considerations for the Champion’s Dinner firmly part of his thinking, though its not as big an event as at Augusta. X has greta Quail experience and is aformer champ at this venue, so his prep is a little less taxing.
some brave golfers still ventured out in the deluge, especially to work on your weaknesses, like Hideki and his putting.
Stat Attack
Its a PGA Tour venue so we can use some recent PGA data, with Rory being -37 over 20 rounds at Quail Hollow, with the next best being X on -22 thru 16 rounds. It worth noting that before LIV, The Bulk & Fatty Feed had good records at this venue too.
Quail is a bombers paradise and with soft conditions to start the week, a blend of open fairways, the data leans to an expected duo (and interesting third), who have these SG averages on par 70 layouts, under soft conditions:
1. Rory 3.00 SG per round
2. X 2.02
3. Tommy Lad 1.83
A few other considerations:
1. Conners had top 15s in both 2023 and 2024, been solid at Quail off the tee (top 20 for 3 years in a row) and Approach to the Green (ranks 2, 13, 7, 2)
2. 7 of the previous 10 PGA winners had posted a top 10 at 1 of the previous 2 majors so thats The Masters or The Open so check those leaderboards out
3. 9 of the previous 10 PGA winners had posted a top 4 on tour in the year of winning so favour form (6 of the 9 had wins)
4. JRose obviously has good form, but more interesting, he has 5 years of top 15s at PGA Championships in a row!
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The course is expected to favour longer hitters, like normal, but specifically those that can draw the ball. In 2017, the weather was also wet, but there was a mix of strengths on display on the Sunday leaderboard. Changing weather with Major set ups can allow different skills to come to the fore.
The Big Boys: are on everyone’s lips. Rory, Scottie, X and The Bulk are all on the march, all recent major winners and they feel they can win at any time. Scottie does seem behind the others with no competitive experience at Quail outside of the 2022 Presidents Cup. Thats amplified with a significant preference by other 3 for Quail with their long games. Its like Quail was made for Rory based on his SG scoring data!
Jordan:The big discussion of can he complete the Grand Slam, where has 2 top 3s since 2013. He does seem to have straightened his errant driver but has that cost him his iron play? He’s an outside chance at best.
The Challengers
The top 10 on DATA GOLF RANKINGS is laced with high performing talent: Scottie, Rory, Collin, Rahmbo, JT, X & BDC are all multiple major winners. Thats 7 of them! Thats a ton of pedigree and form to boot.
Plus look at the list of winners in 2025, littered with the above plus a few others who are favourites for the major per the pundits and betting odds.
JT: Superb form in 2025, great iron play and a nice win to boot. Has history with this trophy and at Quail too.
Collin: Great run at Augusta, 3 straight top 10s and great runs in majors generally. He has fought hard to get back to this and he seems like a solid pick again.
Aberg: Again contended at Augusta, he will keep knocking on the door, which will open eventually.
But what of the rest who are not on everyone’s radar?
Conners had moments at Augusta, has played well this year and will enjoy any ball striking test. Quail Hollow is that test.
Shane: Superb form in 2024, putter is improving (ups and downs) and has nice form in 2025, though just missing the win last week.
Others: Of course, some of the form players in 2025, featured with top 10s last year at Valhalla JRose, Detry, Collin, Shane, JT amongst a few others so be sure to check history as a predictor for the future, as it works over and over again. 8 of the previous 10 PGA winners had posted a top 10 at a prior PGA Championship.
Your Picks
The DATA GOLF RANKINGS are an interesting mix and determine our mixed pots for PICKS.
The Buckets
The Top bucket: The Big 4 dominate, though X has slipped back, but still is right up there. Lets ignore the top 3 (for a second only), anyone picking Cant(p)lay for the top? Too many that are miles ahead of him.
The 2nd bucket: A recent winner here from last week, a regular favourite in Connors or Aberg will dominate this pack All 3 seem solid options, all 3 seeking a 1st major.
The 3rd Bucket: Now time for 2 picks, including a Grand Slam chaser, who is always popular amongst picks, despite his clear weaknesses. JDay has a great record at Quail but have we got any bombers in this bucket? Seems shy of length.
The Bottom Bucket: Another 2 picks, another challenge ahead seeking power and finesse with major credentials. Big Mean Dean will be there based on the power metric. JRose obviously has good form, but could there be a pick for BK or is he past it?
Head over to DATA GOLF RANKINGS to find your team and make those PICKS.
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